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Difference between revisions of "STEM Avian Influenza Model"

(Model)
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[[Image:STEM_AvianFluModel.JPG]]
 
[[Image:STEM_AvianFluModel.JPG]]
  
Below are the differential equations that explain the rate change in the system. Sets 1-4 represent the rate change in the cohorts 0-3.
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Below are the differential equations that explain the differential equations:
  
 
[[Image:STEM_AvianFluModel_Diff_Eq.JPG]]
 
[[Image:STEM_AvianFluModel_Diff_Eq.JPG]]
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When the model contains temperature earth science data, a seasonal effect in transmission is included.

Revision as of 14:03, 22 August 2013

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Background

Several outbreaks of avian influenza has occurred in the past, including the SARS outbreak in 2002, H5N1 in 1997 and H7N9 in 2013 -- all originating in China. This STEM model captures the transmission of the virus between (domesticated) birds, from birds to humans (e.g. at market places) and optionally human-to-human. Mixing of infectious birds between neighboring regions is controlled using a separate parameter from the human mixing parameter.

Model

The model is captured using an SIR model for humans as well as birds, as well as an indirect transmission pathway between infected birds and susceptible humans:

STEM AvianFluModel.JPG

Below are the differential equations that explain the differential equations:

STEM AvianFluModel Diff Eq.JPG

When the model contains temperature earth science data, a seasonal effect in transmission is included.

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